Only founder data predicts early stage success, not company metrics.
Working with the data science team at LinkedIn, we evaluated whether there are signals in the data to predict future company success. After series B, there are signals. Market signals and signals internal to LinkedIn data are predictive. Things like the quality of where you’re hiring from, how many people you win compared to how many you lose to other companies. Those are very predictive. In the early stages, no company level data works. The only thing that works is data around founders specifically. This was truly revelating, showing that at the early stages, it’s all about the founders.
— The Hidden Patterns, with Ben Orthlieb · The Keynote on AI