Current AI relies on patterns, not understanding or reasoning.
I don’t believe AGI will happen by 2025, and many experts agree. Today’s AI works by recognizing patterns and making predictions, not by truly understanding. For example, completing the phrase ‘Life is like a box of…’ with ‘chocolates’ relies on probabilities, not reasoning. Demis Hassabis predicts AGI could arrive around 2035. Ray Kurzweil estimates 2032, and Jürgen Schmidhuber suggests closer to 2050. The gap between pattern recognition and true understanding means AGI as we imagine it is not imminent.
— Sam Altman Says, ‘We Know How To Build AGI’ — Not So Fast · Forbes